Category: Trading

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[PL] Który broker w EU jest najlepszy? Co mówi AI o brokerach w Unii?

Od lat dwa tematy jakie przewijają się często w rozmowach z traderami to jak wybrać, stworzyć dobry system do gry oraz jak wybrać dobrego brokera. Jakiś czas temu napisałem z tego powodu artykuł, a teraz pomyślałem że warto zapytać ChatGPT.

Od ponad roku bawię cię ChatGPT 4.0, korzystam praktycznie codziennie. Fantastyczne narzędzie o nie do końca jeszcze poznanych możliwościach, odpowiada mi na pytania, pisze ciekawe wskaźniki w dowolnym języku programowania. W końcu dwa dni temu pomyślałem, że zapytam który broker z EU jest najlepszy. 

Myślę, że w związku z powyższym warto poznać bliżej tego brokera. A właściwie brokera i bank.

SaxoBank powstał w 1992 roku jako broker, od 2001 ma także licencję bankową, czyli mówiąc prościej jest również bankiem. Dla inwestorów ma to duże znaczenie, jako że depozyty są objęte państwowymi gwarancjami bankowymi co oznacza dużo większe bezpieczeństwo depozytu niż w przypadku brokerów.

Byłem i jestem wielokrotnie pytany o wybór brokera i odpowiedź zawsze zaczynam od tego samego: broker musi pochodzić z kraju o silnych i dojrzałych regulacjach finansowych, wysokiej kulturze prawnej i stabilnym systemie politycznym. To mniej znany, ale krytycznie ważny aspekt bezpieczeństwa kapitału czasem pomijany w pogoni za niskimi kosztami. Dania spełnia te wszystkie wymagania.

To jest dla inwestorów najważniejsze: bezpieczeństwo kapitału w stabilnym systemie bankowym dojrzałego politycznie państwa. Proponuję zapomnieć o brokerach z obrzeży Unii albo broń Boże z rajów podatkowych, mamy tam do czynienia z kilkunastoma rodzajami ryzyka, które są niewarte potencjalnych oszczędności.

Platformy, skanery i narzędzia analityczne

Przejdźmy do następnych w hierarchii tematów ważnych dla traderów. Dobra platforma, SaxoBank ma dwie własne plus oferuje dostęp przez kilka platform zewnętrznych.

Obie wewnętrzne platformy są bardzo dobre i proponuję się skupić na nich. Mamy rozbudowaną analitykę, dostarczaną przez Autochartist. To bardzo wysoki poziom analityczny, ciekawe rozwiązania, które, jeśli ktoś nie zna to proponuję się nimi pobawić. Dużo dają, pozwalają w sekundy przeskanować setki (!) instrumentów i wybrać formacje czy układy świecowe które dobrze „płacą” na rynkach.

Bardzo ciekawą pozycją w skanerze jest ocena procentowa na ile dana formacja (np. klin) sprawdzała się w przeszłości na danym instrumencie. Druga ciekawą informacją jest ocena jakości (wyglądu formacji). Trzecią – ocena zasiągu możliwego ruchu w ciągu najbliższych godzin przygotowana na podstawie analizy statystyki ruchów w przeszłości o tej porze. Pozwala lepiej dobrać stop loss, poziomy wejścia i wyjścia.

Dla kogoś, kto potrafi grać na formacje to bezcenna wiedza i bezcenna pomoc.

Kultura pracy z platformą

Sama platforma jest intuicyjna w obsłudze i można się jej nauczyć dosłownie w kilkanaście minut. Dobra, intuicyjna, wszystko jest przemyślane i dostępne „pod ręką”. Mam swój osobisty wskaźnik tego, czy platforma jest dobra. Jest to coś na co gra masa moich znajomych i miliony traderów na całym świecie. Linie trendu.

Chodzi o ich specyficzne zachowanie pomiędzy różnymi TF (skalami czasowymi). Powiedzmy rysujemy sobie linię trendu na H1 (wykres godzinowy) i potem chcemy zejść niżej na M5, żeby zobaczyć, gdzie jakaś świeca została przebita. Fantastyczne jest to, że ta linia trendu nie znika, nie zmienia swoich punktów zaczepienia, jest dokładnie tam, gdzie była.

Wydaje się, że to nic takiego, ale wiele (nawet bardzo znanych i bardzo dużych) platform tego nie ma. Wydaje się bardzo podstawowej funkcji. Sytuacja, gdy chcesz szybko zobaczyć, jak wygląda rynek na różnych TF i za każdym przełączeniem musisz przestawiać linię trendu jest bardzo irytująca.

Z platformą SaxoTraderGO nie ma tego problemu. Wszystko działa tak jak powinno.

Dla tradingu, szczególnie codziennego kultura pracy z platformą jest kluczowa, wszystko musi działać i być łatwo dostępne.

Ilość instrumentów

Kolejna sprawa to ilość instrumentów. Tu pewne zaskoczenie, bo nie znam drugiego brokera z tak dużą ilością instrumentów – 71 tysięcy!!!! Z tego co wiem to nie wszystkie są dostępne dla każdej lokalizacji, ale sama ilość robi wrażenie. Wygląda na to, że SaxoBank ma wszystko co liczy się w świecie.

Ilość ma znaczenie dla skanerów i tych, którzy np. grają na formacje. Teoretycznie można sobie wybrać najlepsze z najlepszych i spośród tych jeszcze najładniejsze z największym prawdopodobieństwem spodziewanego ruchu. To krok w kierunku lepszych zysków, sam system wykonuje za tradera co najmniej połowę uciążliwej pracy. Mamy dostęp do giełd w różnych strefach czasowych więc praktycznie o każdej porze coś się znajdzie, chociaż osobiście zalecam ograniczenie się do wybranych, stałych godzin.

Ilość instrumentów jest też ważna dla innej grupy traderów – traderów algorytmicznych, grających automatami i używających coraz popularniejszych narzędzi AI. Wielość instrumentów i wielość rynków daje możliwość bardzo dużej dywersyfikacji. W jaki sposób to działa pokaże na przykładzie jednego z najsprawniejszych i najsłynniejszych funduszy quantów – Medallion. Otóż, gdy rozszerzyli swoje systemy na wiele lokalizacji i setki instrumentów zauważyli, że krzywa kapitału się im „wygładziła”.

Gładkość krzywej kapitału pokazuje stabilność zysków, w skrócie fundusz zarabia na większej ilości mniejszych pozycji stawianych na większej ilości instrumentów co pozwala mu wybierać lepsze sytuacje. Zyski miesięczne są wtedy stabilniejsze.

Opinia środowiska traderów

Kolejna rzecz to opinia. Moja opinia, opinia środowiska traderów oraz opinia na Trust Pilot. Moja opinia jest właściwie ukształtowana przez środowisko, w którym obracam się od kilkunastu lat. SaxoBank był praktycznie od zawsze uważany za brokera z górnej półki. Nie było żadnej uzasadnionej wątpliwości co do tego. W stosunku do wielu innych jak najbardziej były.

Zaskakująca zatem była dla mnie opinia jaką znalazłem na TrustPilot. Ogólny wynik 3.7 to mało.

Tu dwa zdania o mnie. Kilkanaście lat pracowałem w konsultingu na rynku korporacyjnym. Jedną z moich specjalizacji była obsługa klienta. Pisze to po to, że rutynowo analizowałem to na co skarżą się klienci i potem razem z managerami budowaliśmy strategie naprawcze i standardy. Ma to znaczenie dla kolejnego kroku jaki zrobiłem.

Przeanalizowałem 300 negatywnych opinii klientów z TrustPilota, żeby zrozumieć co za nimi stoi. Można je podzielić na kilka grup.

Problemy, które klienci określają jako „biurokratyczne”, typu konieczność okresowego uzupełniania informacji. Klienci się złoszczą na to, niestety jest to kwestia niezależna od banku. To cena jaką się płaci za silne regulacje i bezpieczeństwo depozytów. Irytujące, ale niestety konieczne.

Niedostępność niektórych instrumentów (np. ETF) z powodu tego, że wystawca nie udostępnił aktualnej, okresowej dokumentacji. Znów sprawa niezależna, 70 tysięcy instrumentów i wszystkie są poddane jakimś regulacjom. Z jednej strony dla tradera to świetna oferta, ale dla samego banku zapanowanie nad ilością wymaganej przez regulatorów dokumentacji to koszmar. W dodatku z każdym problemem klient nie udaje się do źródła, które leży gdzie indziej, tylko do obsługi klienta.

Podobnie rzecz ma się z limitami ryzyka dla różnych instrumentów i różnych grup klientów: efekt regulacji. Słysząc przez kilkanaście lat dziesiątki dramatycznych historii strat przy braku regulacji i zabezpieczeń naprawdę doceniam silne regulacje. Klienci tego nie rozumieją i ich to złości, ale nie ma na to rady. Być może warto przygotować jakąś specjalną kampanie informacyjną na ten temat.

Problemy z „ukrytymi kosztami” które jednak prawdopodobnie wcale nie były ukryte. Problem z tego typu skargami w większości przypadków bierze się z tego, że klienci nie czytają cenników i warunków. Klienci praktycznie nigdy nie czytają cenników, regulaminów, warunków świadczenia usług, instrukcji obsługi, a gdy coś się wydarzy są zaskoczeni i rozzłoszczeni. I niestety do tego trzeba się dostosować, umieszczać cenniki i regulaminy w widocznych miejscach (obecnie są na stronie głównej SaxoBank), unikać sytuacji, gdy jakieś koszty są niejasne i mogą być potraktowane przez klienta jako ukryte, mimo, że nimi nie są.

Oczywiście można tez mocno przyciąć koszty i wygląda na to, że miesiąc temu SaxoBank poszedł ta ścieżką i jest w tej chwili jednym z najtańszych brokerów.

Wskazówka dla potencjalnych klientów: Twoje pieniądze są ważne, przeczytaj warunki i regulaminy, a jak czegoś nie rozumiesz to dopytaj. Starannie przeczytaj cenniki. Starannie doczytaj jakie limity mają różne instrumenty w które chcesz inwestować. Broker nie jest Twoim wrogiem, jest sprzymierzeńcem, bo też chce zarobić. A część problemów leży zupełnie poza nim, ich źródłem są regulatorzy, różne komisje nadzoru finansowego oraz zewnętrzni dostawcy.

Oferta edukacyjna

Bardzo rozwinięta, na wysokim poziomie, wiele ciekawych i ważnych tematów niedostępnych gdzie indziej.

I tutaj dwie uwagi.

Moim zdaniem webinary są nieco za trudne dla przeciętnego użytkownika. Prowadzą bardzo dobrzy specjaliści, których słucha się z przyjemnością i co do ich poziomu merytorycznego nie mam żadnych zastrzeżeń, natomiast ktoś początkujący w inwestowaniu może mieć problem np. ze zrozumieniem tradera z 20 letnim doświadczeniem używającym specjalistycznych terminów. Nawet jeśli opisuje prosty model oparty o DCF. Przydałoby się więcej wideo na bardziej przystępnym poziomie/formie.

Polacy są coraz bogatszym społeczeństwem, chcą i będą inwestować coraz większe pieniądze. Rynek będzie się rozwijał. Jednak poziom dostępnej wiedzy o rynkach w języku polskim jest, powiedzmy to delikatnie, niezbyt zadowalający. Dostarczenie przez kogoś dobrej wiedzy z Zachodu, koniecznie w języku polskim może być kluczem do naszego rynku.

I tu druga uwaga: myślę, że obiecującą grupą są właśnie Polacy, którzy dorobili się gdzie indziej i chcą inwestować a nie są specjalistami, nie rozumieją terminologii, nie znają języka angielskiego na specjalistycznym poziomie. Oni potrzebują np. dobrych webinarów w języku polskim, po to, żeby zrozumieli co robią. Muszą się poczuć dobrze i pewnie w nowym środowisku, musza nauczyć się inwestować, zarabiać dobre pieniądze i być w tym coraz lepsi. Wtedy wszystkie strony na rynku będą zadowolone.

SaxoBank nie ingerowało w treść tej recenzji. Jest to moja prywatna opinia i nie stanowi rekomendacji inwestycyjnych. Udostępniane informacje powinny być szczegółowo analizowane, porównywane z własnym przypadkiem, ewentualnie konfrontowane z innymi podobnymi publikacjami i dopiero, gdy będą one przedstawiały się jako odpowiednie w danym przypadku, wprowadzane w życie.

DreamShaper_v7_forex_trader_in_the_office_on_Mars_base_1
TradingTrading Psychology

6 reasons for losing discipline in trading and recommendations

Why does trading discipline falter or disappear altogether, and it happens that, in retrospect, we see that we did a lot of stupid things? Let’s start with some clarification. When we talk about discipline we will have two things in mind.

Trading

New, Digital Sheriff Listens From The Clouds

Everything that is hidden will be found out, and every secret will be known. When market manipulations, regulatory violations or outright fraud come to light the fines for banks can go into the hundreds of millions of dollars. In order to protect themselves from new and increasingly clever methods, banks are using newer and newer technologies. We are already familiar with audits, transaction monitoring systems, instant messaging and email monitoring systems (written language).

Recently, two more methods have been added, the first is Behavioral Analytics: monitoring and analyzing the behavior of traders to fish out anomalies, with one of the anomalies indicating that “something is wrong” may be … the speed of entering trades.  

The other is real-time analysis of traders’ voice calls. Still a large part of inter-bank communication is done by telephone. An AI system based on Machine Learning is hosted in the cloud and listens to conversations about trades.

The possibilities are much greater, I don’t think it will be applied anytime soon (privacy issues), but for example, there are already systems for analyzing facial expressions to pick out likely emotions. There are also systems for analyzing not only the content, but also the timbre of the voice, the algorithm is able to pick out emotions that accompany speech and, for example, determine with high probability whether someone is lying (solutions are known and have been used for at least a dozen years, the pioneer was the Israeli service).

All in all, a tighter and tighter system for tracking and catching anomalies is emerging, a side effect of the progressive application of AI. AI systems are becoming more and more “intelligent” and are able to catch more and more complex behaviors. And not just the behaviors themselves – better and better user profiles are being created based on deeper insights into suspicious behavior.

A side effect of voice order analysis is also a slight delay in recording the actual trading volume in the markets, until now this was impossible as voice transactions were summarized only at the end of the day. There is one company that aggregates this type of data, its representatives say they ultimately want to minimize the delay in volume presentation to a few minutes.

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Tips For Beginners On The Market

We get a lot of questions asking for advice on really basic issues,
we’ve gathered the most important ones in one place.

Choosing a broker:

Choose a good broker in your country. In case of a legal dispute, you always have some chance.

From abroad – the best are large brokers from the USA, France, UK, Germany, Denmark, large countries with strong financial regulations. Large brokers from Australia and Japan – OK.

I would avoid small countries, usually their financial regulations are worse and their enforcement is problematic. Also avoid brokers from tax havens and distant countries.

In case of a legal dispute – with a very high probability – you will lose the case. Many times we have heard stories about how brokers from tax havens disappear with clients’ money. This was, is and will be the case as long as they keep finding clients.

Choose the best possible, big brokers from big countries with good financial regulations and a functioning law enforcement apparatus. There is a mass of good brokers, there is a lot to choose from and there is no point in taking any risks.

Please do not ask us questions about a particular broker, our best knowledge is above.

The best systems for beginners

Try to choose a trader who has been teaching for a long time and whose students make money with his system. These are the two most important things: he has been teaching for a long time – that means he knows how to teach and you have a chance to learn. His students are making money: that means his system is good. Again – it means that you also have a chance.

The trader doesn’t have to make money himself (he may already have a large fortune and he doesn’t want to, but this is a worse situation than the one described above), but then his students have to make money on their own.

Ideally – if the trader runs a trading room or often records his analysis and positions so that you can learn on the fly. If his students do the same – all the better, it’s always good to learn the system from several sides.

If the trader gives signals – start there and check the results of, for example, the last 50-80 signals.

The best systems are simple. This is important, because under the pressure of the market with emotions you will make basic mistakes. The more complex the systems the worse. They may work well, but they will take several years to learn. Set yourself up to take several years to learn. The average is 2-3 years, assume that’s the minimum.

After you have mastered the system well, set yourself up for the market to pull out all the weaknesses, fears, anxieties, frustrations and masses of negative states you will have to deal with.

The first strong emotions you will learn about when learning to invest are greed and fear. There is nothing wrong with them except that the former blinds you and the latter paralyzes you. After a certain amount of time, you will learn to deal with them.

After a few years, you’ll notice that you took up the markets to make money, and you got a crash course in working on yourself and your weaknesses in the package.

Features of “For No” Systems

Complicated systems.

Bad reviews on Trustpilot (start there!).

No independent verification or verifications are old and outdated (one of the best verifications is a performance statement confirmed in writing by a good, big broker).

We’ve heard that verifications by systems and services other than the broker aren’t exactly good, maybe it’s a rumor, maybe not, it’s always safe to review and recalculate the last 40-50 signals from the system yourself.

Some examples of traders teaching systems are described here (but we have to admit that we haven’t checked any and haven’t recalculated any, you use at your own risk): www.investopedia.com/best-penny-stock-trading-courses-5115838

Free systems from discussion groups

If you don’t want to invest in education to begin with then (you’ll either invest in education or pay that money in the market, usually both are the case) then I suggest picking someone on newsgroups such as Forexfactory.com.

Unfortunately, we are not in a position to point out “something good”, because that would require us to thoroughly check the system, check and recalculate the inputs, check and answer questions on which pairs or stocks the system works best and why and when it works best. At this point we are not in the business of verifying systems.

A note of caution at the end: any great system, with super results until yesterday, may stop working from tomorrow, because the markets will change.

A good rule of trading: invest only the money you can safely lose.

NOTE: never, none of us or anyone acting supposedly on our behalf will offer you to invest in anything. They may use our names (or similar ones), logos, similar web addresses to extort money from you for super investments in crypto, currencies or super systems and opportunities. The number of similar cases has been growing exponentially over the past few years and one of us (Dr. Spruce) dealt with a similar scammer a week ago. There is a whole bunch of this. We do not provide consulting services and do not intend to do so.

Always make sure who you are dealing with.

You’ll get even more tips in the training “Lessons From Forex Market Masters”. Check it Out: ForexMarketMasters.com/lessons

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MagazineTrading

City’s 1st Recorded Trading Transaction

On any given trading day, tens of billions of pounds flow through the City of London’s bank and fund servers. Most of the transactions take place exclusively digitally. London (actually the City) has always been a strong trading center within the UK and even throughout Europe. The war didn’t change that, nor did Brexit.

A dozen years ago, an archaeological dig for Bloomberg’s new headquarters on Queen Victoria Street uncovered a wooden tablet containing a record of the first commercial transaction in the City. It took place some 2,000 years ago.

It retains traces of words engraved with a metal stylus on black wax (which has not survived).  

The record was made on January 8 in the year 57 AD. It is a correspondence between two freed slaves regarding an unspecified sale worth 105 denarii. At the time, this was about half the annual salary of a Roman legionary.

Dr. Roger Tomlin of Oxford University has translated the text from Latin as follows:

“During the consulship of Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus for the second time and Lucius Calpurnius Piso, on the 6th day before the January Ides (January 8 AD 57). I, Tibullus liberator of Venustus, have written and declare that I owe Gratus liberator of Spurius 105 denarii from the price of the goods that were sold and delivered. This money I owe to return to him or to the person to whom the matter shall concern…”.

Today, terabytes of data on transactions worth hundreds of billions of pounds flow where someone lost the plaque.

In the consulship of Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus for the second time and of Lucius Calpurnius Piso, on the 6th day before the Ides of January (8 January AD 57).I, Tibullus the freedman of Venustus, have written and say that I owe Gratus the freedman of Spurius 105 denarii from the price of the merchandise which has been sold and delivered. This money I am due to repay him or the person whom the matter will concern…

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Stress In Trading: Manage The State Of Your Mind

Good preparation, good comprehensive knowledge of the system and practicing it in a multitude of equal situations is the best recipe for good results and low stress. Because you will be very, very, very well prepared.

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Trading

[EN] Analysis: EURO May Bounce Back

Gregor Horvat 
– CEO and analyst team at wavetraders.com

EURO can recover a lot as hiking cylce by CB can be approaching to the end. Over the past few years, the EUR has experienced a sharp decline against the USD, which has been a bearish trend that accelerated through the first part of 2021, with the EUR/USD rate falling below parity and even reaching 0.96 at some point.

The reason for this strong drop last year was the FOMC’s hawkish policy, which is typically the first bank to make big shifts in policy. It’s no surprise that investors and speculators turned bullish on the USD as the Fed hiked rates quickly from 0 to 5%. While other central banks were lagging, they eventually started to act with a delay.

However, the FED hinted that the hawkish policy could be approaching a pause, and that’s when many currencies, including the EUR, turned up significantly to 1.1 at the start of 2023.

We see this recovery as a reversal pattern, as it is a sharp and strong move, called an impulse in Elliott wave terms. Such price action typically indicates that the market is bottoming and that times are changing. From that perspective, it can be an interesting resumption of this new recovery after a correction – an A-B-C retracement. Comparing real-time data with the “basic structure,” we can see that most likely, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a corrective phase. Therefore, we believe that the recovery can resume after this pullback is completed.

What is impulse wave?
A five-wave pattern that moves in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree.

Rules:
– Wave 2 should not break below the beginning of Wave 1.
– Wave 3 should not be the shortest wave among Wave 1, 3 and 5.
– Wave 4 should not overlap with Wave

EURUSD weekly chart-Elliott wave bullish formation

Despite this bullish structure, we need to consider what’s happening in other markets and the fundamentals and macro views that could support the idea of a stronger EUR over the coming months or years.

One of the most important drivers of the EUR/USD pair is interest rates, particularly the rate differential. EURODOLLAR futures are also significant since they represent US dollars deposited in foreign bank accounts.

EURUSD wykres tygodniowy – formacja bycza fali elliottowskiej 

This has always moved in cycles, and there is less interest in holding USD in foreign banks if the Fed is going to stop the hiking cycle. Notice that EURODOLLAR futures are approaching the end of a multi-year and decade cycle.

This could be a significant period for a new shift in trend, given that we believe the FED will really slow down the hiking cycle due to the recession risk after the recent bank crisis.

We see the 10-year US yield also trading at horizontal resistance, testing previous lows, which appears to be the same pattern compared to 1989 and 2006. Therefore, if the Fed ends its hikes or even cuts them by the end of 2023, lower 10-year US yields will have an impact on EURODOLLAR futures, and that’s when the EU-US rate differential can send the EUR/USD pair much higher, as it did after 1989 and 2006. Each time after that early bottom, the EUR/USD pair then recovered for around 30%.

With that said, we think there can be room for the EUR/USD to return to the 1.3-1.4 area.

Dear readers, traders and investors, I am happy and honored to be invited to contribute in this amazing magazine. I hope you enjoyed the read.

If you are active trader and interesting in cycle, sentiment and Elliott wave analysis make sure to check our services at www.WaveTraders.com

Gregor Horvat. CEO and analyst team at wavetraders.com. Winner of FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016, plus Best Buy-Side Analysis in 2018. He enjoys teaching and helping other clients and shares his opinion about the Elliott wave principle and crowd psychology in real-time. Elliott wave is his passion!

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[PL] Analiza: EURO Może Odrobić

Gregor Horvat 
– CEO i analityk w wavetraders.com

 

EURO może SPORO odrobić. Cykl podwyżek stóp procentowych Banku Centralnego US może zbliżać się do końca. W ciągu ostatnich kilku lat EUR doświadczyło silnego spadku w stosunku do USD, co było niedźwiedzim trendem, który przyspieszył przez pierwszą część 2021 roku, a kurs EUR/USD spadł poniżej parytetu i w pewnym momencie osiągnął nawet poziom 0,96.

Powodem tak silnego spadku w ubiegłym roku była jastrzębia polityka FOMC, który zazwyczaj jest pierwszym bankiem dokonującym dużych zmian w polityce. Nie jest zaskoczeniem, że inwestorzy i spekulanci stali się byczo nastawieni do USD, gdy Fed szybko podniósł stopy z 0 do 5%.

Podczas gdy inne banki centralne pozostawały w tyle, w końcu zaczęły działać z opóźnieniem. FED zasugerował jednak, że jastrzębia polityka może zbliżać się do pauzy, i to właśnie wtedy wiele walut, w tym EUR, zawróciło znacząco do 1,1 na początku 2023 r.

Widzimy to ożywienie jako wzór odwrócenia, ponieważ jest to ostry i silny ruch, zwany impulsem w terminologii fal Elliotta. Taka akcja cenowa zazwyczaj wskazuje, że rynek jest na dnie i że czasy się zmieniają.

Z tej perspektywy interesujące może być wznowienie tego nowego ożywienia po korekcie – retracement A-B-C. Porównując dane w czasie rzeczywistym z “podstawową strukturą” widzimy, że najprawdopodobniej para EUR/USD znajduje się obecnie w fazie korekcyjnej. W związku z tym uważamy, że odzyskiwanie może zostać wznowione po zakończeniu tego pullbacku.

Co to jest fala impulsowa? Formacja pięciofalowa, która porusza się w tym samym kierunku co trend wyższej skali.

Zasady:

– Fala 2 nie powinna przełamać się poniżej początku Fali 1.

– Fala 3 nie powinna być najkrótszą falą wśród fal 1, 3 i 5.

– Fala 4 nie powinna pokrywać się z Falą

EURUSD wykres tygodniowy – formacja bycza fali elliottowskiej 

Pomimo tej byczej struktury musimy wziąć pod uwagę to, co dzieje się na innych rynkach oraz fundamenty i poglądy makro, które mogą wspierać ideę silniejszego EUR w najbliższych miesiącach lub latach.

Jednym z najważniejszych czynników napędzających parę EUR/USD są stopy procentowe, w szczególności dyferencjał stóp. Istotne są również kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLARA, ponieważ reprezentują one dolary amerykańskie zdeponowane na zagranicznych rachunkach bankowych. To zawsze poruszało się w cyklach, a zainteresowanie trzymaniem USD w zagranicznych bankach jest mniejsze, jeśli Fed zamierza zatrzymać cykl podwyżek.

Analiza cyklu EURODOLAR, na tle notowań USA i pary EUR/USD

Zauważmy, że kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLAR zbliżają się do końca cyklu wieloletniego i dekadowego. Może to być znaczący okres dla nowej zmiany trendu, biorąc pod uwagę, że naszym zdaniem FED naprawdę spowolni cykl podwyżek ze względu na ryzyko recesji po ostatnim kryzysie bankowym.

Widzimy, że 10-letnia rentowność w USA również handluje przy horyzontalnym oporze, testując poprzednie minima, co wydaje się być tym samym wzorcem w porównaniu z 1989 i 2006 r.

Dlatego też, jeśli Fed zakończy swoje podwyżki lub nawet je ograniczy do końca 2023 r., niższe 10-letnie rentowności USA będą miały wpływ na kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLARY, a wtedy właśnie różnica stóp UE-USA może wysłać parę EUR/USD znacznie wyżej, tak jak miało to miejsce po 1989 i 2006 r. Za każdym razem po tym wczesnym dnie para EUR/USD odzyskiwała następnie około 30%. Mając to na uwadze, uważamy, że może istnieć przestrzeń dla EUR/USD do powrotu w rejon 1,3-1,4.

Drodzy czytelnicy, traderzy i inwestorzy, jestem szczęśliwy i zaszczycony, że zostałem zaproszony do udziału w tym niesamowitym magazynie. Mam nadzieję, że podobała Wam się ta lektura. Jeśli jesteś aktywnym inwestorem i interesujesz się analizą cyklu, sentymentu i fal Elliotta, sprawdź nasze usługi na www.WaveTraders.com

Gregor Horvat. CEO i analityk w wavetraders.com. Zwycięzca FXStreet.com za Najlepszą Analizę Forex w 2016 roku, plus Najlepszą Analizę Buy-Side w 2018 roku. Lubi uczyć i pomagać innym klientom oraz dzielić się swoją opinią na temat zasady fal Elliotta i psychologii tłumu w czasie rzeczywistym. Elliott wave jest jego pasją!

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Traders' StoriesTradingTrading Psychology

Conversation With Larry Williams

Larry Williams has been trading futures and stocks for nearly 60 years. Winner of World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned real $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (10,900%) in a 12-month competition.

Larry Williams has taught thousands to trade the markets, and has been the only futures trader in the world to repeatedly trade $1 million of his own money live at seminars around the globe.

He has created numerous market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, COT indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measurements for commodity prices.

In between trading, researching and developing trading tools, teaching, and writing, Larry managed to run twice for the U.S. Senate as well as 76 marathons.

Part I. The Beginnings

When, have you for the first time considered trading as something worth trying?

Well, it was in 1962. I’m an old guy.

Could you describe your first system?

By today’s standards it wasn’t much of a system. We didn’t have computers back then. It was more a strategy than a system. It was based on the market being oversold and in an uptrend as measured by the advanced decline line. That was the strategy that I developed somewhere in the 60s. I wasn’t a futures trader, that was for stocks.

Did you experience periods of hesitation when you wanted to leave trading?

Sure, I still do today. It’s not an easy business to be a successful trader. And there are always doubts and questions. It’s always frustrating to be a trader. Not an easy life.

Was there any memorable experience that determined you to trade further?

What encouraged me was that to most of the traders it looked like easy work. You didn’t have a job, you didn’t have a boss. When I grew up, my dad used to work in an oil refinery. It was a hard, dirty, stinky, sweaty work. I didn’t want to have to live like that. My dad always told me that you have to think with your head, learn to work with your head, your brains. Not with your back like he did. And this looked like an ideal thing. If it goes up, you make money. That sounded like a good deal.

Did you have any external support at this time, such as friends, family, a mentor or a book?

No, not really. Along the way I met a couple of people that gave me some insight into the market. One was Gale Haller. He was very kind, I spent maybe three days with him over a couple of years. Back then you wrote letters, so we exchanged a lot of letters and became friends. He was very inspirational and encouraging. He showed me that it was important to try to assist other people. There was another fellow, Bill Meehan. I paid Bill a lot of money. He came and worked for me, taught me what he knew. He was a member of the Board of Trade. He was very helpful. Other than that I didn’t have anybody to hold my hand. For the first ten years I was holding my own hand. Usually in prayer .

Did you keep any trading journals? Were they really helpful?

I didn’t back then, no. I do now. Wasn’t smart enough to figure that out then.

Did you have a high level of stress when you started?

Probably not, I was too young to understand what I was doing. When you’re young, you’ll do all sorts of stupid things. You drink Red Bull and jump off cliffs. I probably wouldn’t do that at my age now. I didn’t realise what I was getting into, so I didn’t feel as much stress as in the later points of my life. Plus, it was just me. Now, if I do something, there are people all over the world following me, so I have the stress of market and looking like a fool to all these people. It’s a double stress now.

How do you cope with stress today?

I drink a lot . I think you need to put things in perspective. Nobody can be right all the time. I can’t be right all the time, I’ve proven that. The acceptance that this is a very imperfect business and not overbetting, not betting beyond your emotional threshold.

Did you attend any trading seminars or training sessions?

No.

What did you learn from the early phase that benefited you most?

One thing I learned is that most of the stuff that’s out there is junk. At least for me. Things like Fibonacci and Elliott wave, astrology and all these may work. But they didn’t work for me. I had to find something that was compatible with how I thought, how I acted and reacted. That was kind of a breakthrough when you figure out that this doesn’t work, that doesn’t work. It doesn’t work for anyone and for me it didn’t work. That was one thing. I think I was getting into a cadence of pace, I could almost feel back then what the market was doing, where it was going to go, I just sensed it. It’s kind of a unique quality. To learn to be in phase with the market, learning to use stoplosses. When I was young, it was written about me, Paul Tudor Jones called me “Kamikaze Cowboy”, because I bet so huge. I had big up moves and big down moves. I used to not care, I liked getting into a fight, I didn’t care if I lose, I just like to fight. I was pretty much trading the market that way, too. Just had no fear of it.

Your father was a refinery worker and you said that you were determined not to work there. What is the role of motivation or determination in your success?

I think both my mother and my father were very motivational. My mother definitely wanted her children to do things, whatever these things were. And my father made it really clear to us that we should go to college. He worked hard to help his family have a better life. His father helped him to have a better life. It was like he was saying “You’ve got to find a way to live and work that’s better than what I’m doing because my life sucks, my work sucks, it’s hard”. So, there was a lot of motivation from my family to get educated. And to be productive workers. Not to be sponges on society.

What was your first year trading like? Was it profitable?

I can’t even recall. Probably wasn’t profitable or not wildly profitable. I think I went for two or three years of success, failure, success, failure. If on a given day I was ahead, I was ahead. But a few months later I might be a failure again. It was very much like a yoyo.

Did you have a regular job? How did you reconcile trading with this job?

Yes, I did have a job. I did everything I could not to get fired . Because I was paying more attention to the markets than I was working. I have always worked, but didn’t have much of a life. As soon as I got home I would be working on the markets. Then I looked for a job that would give me more freedom to look at the markets more. In 1967 I was finally up and running and able to tell people what I was doing. And they wanted to know. So I started writing a little letter about what I was doing. One of my old college professors always said “Don’t give it away for free”. And I never knew what that meant until everybody wanted my writings. Then I realized what Maxwell said and I decided to give a scholarship in his honour to University of Oregon. This year it will be 10 scholarships in his name. So, I started charging for the newsletter and this was an up period in my life. That started my publishing career.

What books have had the biggest influence on you?

For just the markets, it would be “The Zurich Axioms”. If you go beyond that, the great works of the world, whether it’s the Bible – there are so many lessons about life and cycles in the Bible, books on philosophy. There are so many good market books that I don’t even know where to begin. Books on understanding myself, like my son’s book he has written. I wish I had this thirty or forty years ago. It’s called “The Mental Edge in Trading” by dr Jason Williams. My son is a psychiatrist and he interviewed professional winning traders to see what the personality types were and how they dealt with failure and success. I wish I know what was in that book a long time ago. I suppose “Transactional Analysis” by Eric Berne was a helpful book. There was also a series of books on self-awareness, but I can’t remember the author’s last name. I did a lot of zen Buddhism, zen monasteries in the mountains of California. But the basis of the whole attitude was acceptance of who you are and that it’s an imperfect life. You can’t be addicted to perfection because you’d be frustrated your entire life. So, just accept what’s there.

Which of your books would you recommend to a beginner?

For a stock trader, it would be the first book I ever wrote “Sure Thing Stock Investing”. Most of the things are still alive and working quite well. Then, you can go to another level. Just like in college, you can go to a graduate degree. In commodities I would begin with “How I Made One Million Dollars Trading Commodities Last Year”. In a way it’s inspirational. Here’s a young kid that was able to make a million dollars in a year and didn’t have much money to go with. There are also techniques in the book, but it’s inspirational, to get people interested in this business. My other books get more technical and less inspirational, so that might not mean as much to a beginner.

Taking into account your actual experience, do you have any suggestions for beginners?

Study money management.

Be humble. Because the markets will humble you. Repeatedly .

Part II. Transformation from a beginner to a successful trader

When did you reach the level of consistent gains?

It took quite a while. I don’t think I was consistent until maybe 6th year of trading. Most people don’t want to sit through that long. They think they are going to get it instantly. They are smart. They make a lot of money – they are a doctor or a lawyer. But even to these people, it takes much longer than they think. It’s not a “get rich quick” business.

Could you describe your biggest win? How did you feel?

I felt dejected, I felt like a bit of a failure. Because I could’ve made more money. It could’ve been a better trade. It wasn’t a feeling of glee, exaltation and happiness. It was a good feeling, but still a bit of a failure because I could’ve had more contracts on, I could’ve held it longer.

I was trying to make a million dollars a week, that’s what was happening. I made a million dollars in a year, I made a million dollars in a month, I made a million dollars in a week. And I was trying to make a million dollars in a day.

By the time I was out of the trade I was up around 850 thousand dollars but that wasn’t my goal. So it felt like a failure. It didn’t feel particularly good, it felt like a trade. When I was out of the trade, the pressure was off for me for a while.

When you look at the good traders – Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen – they are of course managing billions of dollars but they do this all the time. They’re doing it with a bigger amount of money. But that’s the thing that confuses people.

When I’m stuck in my trading, to me a million dollars is a hell of a lot amount of money to win or lose. My dad never had that in his entire lifetime. So I still have an emotional hot button which is the dollar amount, even if it’s a percentage. To me that’s just a gargantuan amount of money that I still have emotional issues to the raw numbers of dollars.

Could you describe your biggest mistake? What lesson did that experience teach you?

My biggest mistake was paying more attention to the markets than to my family. I learned that I have to balance my life. Clearly, if you are going to be successful at something, you’re going to have imbalance in your life. You’re not going to get anywhere if you don’t go to extremes. But I just had to be more careful about balance.

When have you become interested in Forex and indexes?

I have never been that much interested in that to be honest. I did trade them for a little bit. But frankly, I felt it was a bad deal. Because you pay a higher commission. Especially when I first started trading forex, they charged you 2 pips going in, 2 pips going out. Sometimes the price would go beyond my limit order and I wasn’t filled.

This is crazy, I can’t get filled, there’s no legitimate market here, no exchange, no regulation on this thing. And I’m paying 45 dollars where I paid 3 dollars before. So, I don’t trade Forex. Maybe now you don’t have as much vigorish in there. I’m paying 4 dollars roundturn, I could probably get a lower rate if I wanted. But I don’t like to beat up my brokers. And I’m an old guy.

To me Forex is complex – you’re doing all this spreads versus the yen, versus the D-mark, versus the Australian dollar, whatever. And I just want to be long wheat, cattle or gold. I can get all the trouble I want in a simple market like that.

And what I’m very upset with the Forex community about is to offer people 50:1 or 100:1 margin. I have more respect to the people that are selling crack cocaine on street corners than to people offering 100:1 margin. I actually mean that.

If you’re offering 100:1 margin, it’s just a question of time when your client will lose money. Period. It’s going to happen. Why do people do that? Why do they pounder these poor people like that? That’s always been a real concern of mine. People think: “Oh, I can open an account on a credit card!”. Yeah, you can but you’re going to get blown out. Really fast [laughter]

The Maturity

What do you do to mentally prepare yourself before each trading day?

I don’t do anything special. By this point in my life I’m a professional. I come to work and I’m prepared, I know what I am going to do.

There was a point earlier in my life when I tried affirmations, deep breathing and whatever. But I’m a professional, I record my notes, I record my trades, I know what I’m doing. If I don’t have the time to trade, like last night when we went to a big fancy dinner party, I don’t trade. I don’t go through any mantras or anything.

Today, do you have one particular system or many systems?

I have several. Some of them are automatically traded. I don’t know if I’m long or short. They just do the trading during the day. Then I have a strategy that I implemented in my own trades.

I have a crude oil trading system, an e-mini trading system, a gold system, a bond system – those are just traded mechanically by a computer. And then I have other trades that I will take based on my indicators.

If I understand you properly you do use robots?

Yes, we call them automatic trading systems or mechanical trading systems. I have those. I could develop them for the Forex market if I wanted to. But I like the big markets like gold, crude oil, S&P, bonds. There are some great trading opportunities there.

What do you think is the role of discipline in trading?

It’s huge. If you don’t have discipline, it’s not just about trading but also in business, if you’re an athlete, you’re going to fail. Just a question of when. You have got to stick with what you’re doing here.

What would be your advice to the people who have low level of self-discipline?

Get a day job . They’re not going to last. Better donate your money to the Salvation Army. Because you’re going to lose it. This way you will at least know who got your money and do some good for the world.

Do you have any regrets regarding your career path as a trader?

Yeah, sure. A lot of regrets. I regret that I was too much of a cowboy trader, so I didn’t get into money management. That’s where the big money is.

I mean I do OK. But the big money is in managing, these guys manage billions of dollars. I could have done that and I blew it. Because I was too much of a hot shot guy.

I also regret that I don’t have much regret from the institutional people because of that. I think the public people respect me and admire what I’ve done. But the big boys don’t want to have anything to do with me because I’m not one of them. That’s a failure or regret.

I regret that I haven’t been more disciplined and more organised in what I’ve done. I should’ve kept better notes. I’ve had so many bad trades. It’s so easy to be in a good trade, anybody can do that. The retrospection of a bad trade brings up cause for regret: “Why did I do that? How stupid was that? What didn’t I see?”.

I have lots of regrets. I have known so many people in this business and most of us are still friends but we have lost some friends because I said some wrong things at a time, upset somebody. I’m trying to be a little better person than I used to be but I still fail at that.

That’s not to say I’m not pleased. I’ve had some phenomenal, wonderful life. I can’t knock that. It’s been a phenomenal experience I have never expected. There are some things that I sure as heck could’ve done better and been a nicer person.

Your books are full of descriptions of attempts to understand the mechanisms of the markets and creating new indicators on this basis. Have you already given up the case or are you still creating something new?

I’m still working, I’ll be working on this until the day I die . I’ll be in a hospital under a respirator and I still say “Here’s one more idea, you’ve got to program it in here! We’ve got to try this.”

 You have just read a part of the conversation with Larry Williams. Find the full version of the interview in the ebook “Conversations with Forex Market Masters” Check it out! www.ForexMarketMasters.com/ebook

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TradingTrading Psychology

6 Most Dangerous Problems In Trading

We are entering a period of even more intense changes brought about by rapidly developing AI technologies. For the most part, they are having a negative impact on the profitability of retail investors’ and traders’ systems. Below I have collected problems that look like the most threatening to long-term profitability. For different people, their intensity will vary, while they are bound to increase. At some point they will affect every trader and will have to be solved. After describing each of them, along with possible consequences, I will give some suggestions for seeking solutions

PROBLEM 1: Changing the model of successful investing

According to research by LCH Investments (the oldest fund that invests in other hedge funds), the top 20 funds earned $22 billion last year. One of them, Citadel, run by Ken Griffin, earned 16 billion (72%).

The importance of this result is underscored by the fact that last year was a very tough year for funds. According to the same study, the entire industry lost more than $208 billion last year.

The reason for the big difference between the best and the rest was not only the tough market. We are dealing with the first results of the emergence of a completely new quality. The model of a successful fund has changed and the model of successful investing has changed. It is no secret that it is Citadel that has been building and perfecting it for several years.

In short: The new fund model is a number of thematic teams specializing in narrow areas: e.g. specific currencies, sectors. Here traders’ knowledge is supported by new technologies: quants, alternative data and edge analysis along the entire investment process.

As a result, teams are formed that have an advantage at multiple points (new term: multiedge) and practically suck money out of the markets on both ups and downs.
As a result, other traders or investors lose. They are no longer competing with other investors. They are pitted against each other with teams of traders, scientists and programmers who study and improve every element of the investment process. This is how multiedge is created.

Their results are much more stable than other traders (and other funds).

This is not something that will pass. After the success of the Citadel model, the entire investment industry will begin to emulate it. Within four to five years, the new model may appear in 40-50% of funds.

This model is winning the race for clients’ cash. It gives stable, high returns with less risk. The team has better strategies, a more complete picture of the market, and can find and exploit the best signals to the maximum faster.

As a result, little liquidity is left for other market players to exploit.

PROBLEM 2: Declining liquidity is also the result of crowding and increasing automation

Crowding is the crowding of strategies. The basic strategies are quite well known and the signals from them are watched by thousands of traders.

In strategies that have well-defined rules and steps to follow – some of the liquidity is picked up by automatons (these strategies are the easiest to automate). There is a growing saturation of AI (artificial intelligence) tools in funds. More and more strategies will undergo automation.

For retail traders, this means looking for new markets or new strategies. A trader who a dozen years ago could make a living using one system suddenly faces the challenge of finding “something new.” Usually he is not prepared for this, he knows his trade or his “system” well and does not know how to find something new, how to run and test it.

The second option is to review one’s own investment process with a view to improving it and drawing out to the maximum what it can bring. This is a program that every trader should start practically yesterday.

Improving your investment process is inevitable, any new strategy will also be at risk, and you should know how to get the most out of it while you can.

This is the ending of part one. You can read the whole thing in the magazine. Just subscribe below!
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