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City’s 1st Recorded Trading Transaction

On any given trading day, tens of billions of pounds flow through the City of London’s bank and fund servers. Most of the transactions take place exclusively digitally. London (actually the City) has always been a strong trading center within the UK and even throughout Europe. The war didn’t change that, nor did Brexit.

A dozen years ago, an archaeological dig for Bloomberg’s new headquarters on Queen Victoria Street uncovered a wooden tablet containing a record of the first commercial transaction in the City. It took place some 2,000 years ago.

It retains traces of words engraved with a metal stylus on black wax (which has not survived).  

The record was made on January 8 in the year 57 AD. It is a correspondence between two freed slaves regarding an unspecified sale worth 105 denarii. At the time, this was about half the annual salary of a Roman legionary.

Dr. Roger Tomlin of Oxford University has translated the text from Latin as follows:

“During the consulship of Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus for the second time and Lucius Calpurnius Piso, on the 6th day before the January Ides (January 8 AD 57). I, Tibullus liberator of Venustus, have written and declare that I owe Gratus liberator of Spurius 105 denarii from the price of the goods that were sold and delivered. This money I owe to return to him or to the person to whom the matter shall concern…”.

Today, terabytes of data on transactions worth hundreds of billions of pounds flow where someone lost the plaque.

In the consulship of Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus for the second time and of Lucius Calpurnius Piso, on the 6th day before the Ides of January (8 January AD 57).I, Tibullus the freedman of Venustus, have written and say that I owe Gratus the freedman of Spurius 105 denarii from the price of the merchandise which has been sold and delivered. This money I am due to repay him or the person whom the matter will concern…

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ChatGPT in TradingMagazine

ChatGPT: A New Gold Rush Is Starting In The U.S.

By complete coincidence, I took part in one of the US DARPA agency’s design competitions. The consequences of what I learned are powerful. It started completely innocently enough. I clicked on an ad on FB, I have a liked DARPA profile so that’s probably why the ad for their project came to me. It was about a new educational project that DARPA is currently working on. They were looking for people and companies that can do it for them.

The prerequisite is to be a U.S. citizen or U.S. residency, I don’t have one but I thought what do I care I’ll probably learn something interesting.

What I learned exceeded my wildest expectations.

Well, DARPA wants to build a civilian project. The framework of the project is defined by two elements: one is the need and the other is the opportunity.

The need is defined perhaps best in a World Economic Forum document: by 2025, about half of all workers worldwide will require retraining to remain competitive in the job market. Economies today are changing rapidly on top of the accelerated changes brought about by AI. This is a gigantic need and a gigantic market.

The second element is opportunity. That opportunity is the first AIs in operation (any version of ChatGPT). As part of the project, the Americans described the problem that has not been solved so far this way:

The most effective form of teaching is tutoring in the presence of a teacher. However, this is an expensive solution. The use of AI in the role of the teacher will reduce costs and shorten the time from the creation of the need to the preparation of workers for the new profession.

After this introduction, I will write directly what the Americans are building: they are building a training company that in a few years, using AI, will be able to train up to several hundred million people. Such a company will be created starting in May.

From the meetings I got the impression that DARPA is the initiator of the project while it will be implemented by a civilian company. I don’t quite have an answer to the question of why they are doing this. The only thing that naturally comes to mind is that the problem they are trying to address is simply gigantic, so big that it is capable of shaking the social order in the US.

The tremendous changes that are already underway will create tremendous needs, and this opens up an opportunity for us to build new businesses. I think we are in the early stages of a fever similar to the dot-com era 20 years ago. New companies will be formed, huge assets will be created in a short period of time.

What is the opportunity? Well, in the fact that usually “everyone else” finds out about such projects once they take off and get a large number of customers.  This time, by happy coincidence, we know about it even before the Americans prepare something. This is an opportunity to take advantage of the natural advantage of being first to market (in Poland, for example) – an opportunity that is every business founder’s dream.

This project is an example of what will happen in the next few years. There will be new projects based on tools like ChatGPT.

In our case, this is a complete change of the rules of the market game. Until now, we have had access to training services containing pre-recorded videos. That is, something like a boring lecture without the opportunity to ask questions of the presenter. I have used many times, with time you can get used to it, but I would gladly change to something better.

In our case, first of all the video doesn’t have to be boring (the first competitive differentiator) and on top of that we have the possibility of getting answers to questions from someone at the Harvard University level.

If we add to this a focus on courses in areas that are in demand in the market plus what have been bestsellers elsewhere, we have a good product strategy. Another competitive differentiator can be added to this – follow-up after-training, which is also easy to prepare.

My guess is that this U.S. service can get maybe 20 million customers in a few 4-5 years which will put its valuation (based on the valuation of today’s training services) at about a billion dollars. And this may be a highly understated result. A realistic one could settle in the neighborhood of above 8-10 billion.  ChatGPT gained 100 million users in less than three months and is now valued at $30 billion.

A completely different company, founded by (…)

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[PL] Analiza: EURO Może Odrobić

Gregor Horvat 
– CEO i analityk w wavetraders.com

 

EURO może SPORO odrobić. Cykl podwyżek stóp procentowych Banku Centralnego US może zbliżać się do końca. W ciągu ostatnich kilku lat EUR doświadczyło silnego spadku w stosunku do USD, co było niedźwiedzim trendem, który przyspieszył przez pierwszą część 2021 roku, a kurs EUR/USD spadł poniżej parytetu i w pewnym momencie osiągnął nawet poziom 0,96.

Powodem tak silnego spadku w ubiegłym roku była jastrzębia polityka FOMC, który zazwyczaj jest pierwszym bankiem dokonującym dużych zmian w polityce. Nie jest zaskoczeniem, że inwestorzy i spekulanci stali się byczo nastawieni do USD, gdy Fed szybko podniósł stopy z 0 do 5%.

Podczas gdy inne banki centralne pozostawały w tyle, w końcu zaczęły działać z opóźnieniem. FED zasugerował jednak, że jastrzębia polityka może zbliżać się do pauzy, i to właśnie wtedy wiele walut, w tym EUR, zawróciło znacząco do 1,1 na początku 2023 r.

Widzimy to ożywienie jako wzór odwrócenia, ponieważ jest to ostry i silny ruch, zwany impulsem w terminologii fal Elliotta. Taka akcja cenowa zazwyczaj wskazuje, że rynek jest na dnie i że czasy się zmieniają.

Z tej perspektywy interesujące może być wznowienie tego nowego ożywienia po korekcie – retracement A-B-C. Porównując dane w czasie rzeczywistym z “podstawową strukturą” widzimy, że najprawdopodobniej para EUR/USD znajduje się obecnie w fazie korekcyjnej. W związku z tym uważamy, że odzyskiwanie może zostać wznowione po zakończeniu tego pullbacku.

Co to jest fala impulsowa? Formacja pięciofalowa, która porusza się w tym samym kierunku co trend wyższej skali.

Zasady:

– Fala 2 nie powinna przełamać się poniżej początku Fali 1.

– Fala 3 nie powinna być najkrótszą falą wśród fal 1, 3 i 5.

– Fala 4 nie powinna pokrywać się z Falą

EURUSD wykres tygodniowy – formacja bycza fali elliottowskiej 

Pomimo tej byczej struktury musimy wziąć pod uwagę to, co dzieje się na innych rynkach oraz fundamenty i poglądy makro, które mogą wspierać ideę silniejszego EUR w najbliższych miesiącach lub latach.

Jednym z najważniejszych czynników napędzających parę EUR/USD są stopy procentowe, w szczególności dyferencjał stóp. Istotne są również kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLARA, ponieważ reprezentują one dolary amerykańskie zdeponowane na zagranicznych rachunkach bankowych. To zawsze poruszało się w cyklach, a zainteresowanie trzymaniem USD w zagranicznych bankach jest mniejsze, jeśli Fed zamierza zatrzymać cykl podwyżek.

Analiza cyklu EURODOLAR, na tle notowań USA i pary EUR/USD

Zauważmy, że kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLAR zbliżają się do końca cyklu wieloletniego i dekadowego. Może to być znaczący okres dla nowej zmiany trendu, biorąc pod uwagę, że naszym zdaniem FED naprawdę spowolni cykl podwyżek ze względu na ryzyko recesji po ostatnim kryzysie bankowym.

Widzimy, że 10-letnia rentowność w USA również handluje przy horyzontalnym oporze, testując poprzednie minima, co wydaje się być tym samym wzorcem w porównaniu z 1989 i 2006 r.

Dlatego też, jeśli Fed zakończy swoje podwyżki lub nawet je ograniczy do końca 2023 r., niższe 10-letnie rentowności USA będą miały wpływ na kontrakty terminowe na EURODOLARY, a wtedy właśnie różnica stóp UE-USA może wysłać parę EUR/USD znacznie wyżej, tak jak miało to miejsce po 1989 i 2006 r. Za każdym razem po tym wczesnym dnie para EUR/USD odzyskiwała następnie około 30%. Mając to na uwadze, uważamy, że może istnieć przestrzeń dla EUR/USD do powrotu w rejon 1,3-1,4.

Drodzy czytelnicy, traderzy i inwestorzy, jestem szczęśliwy i zaszczycony, że zostałem zaproszony do udziału w tym niesamowitym magazynie. Mam nadzieję, że podobała Wam się ta lektura. Jeśli jesteś aktywnym inwestorem i interesujesz się analizą cyklu, sentymentu i fal Elliotta, sprawdź nasze usługi na www.WaveTraders.com

Gregor Horvat. CEO i analityk w wavetraders.com. Zwycięzca FXStreet.com za Najlepszą Analizę Forex w 2016 roku, plus Najlepszą Analizę Buy-Side w 2018 roku. Lubi uczyć i pomagać innym klientom oraz dzielić się swoją opinią na temat zasady fal Elliotta i psychologii tłumu w czasie rzeczywistym. Elliott wave jest jego pasją!

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[HOT] New Issue Released!

One of the most important challenges for traders and funds is losing an edge. In the promised article “The Lowest Hanging Fruit 2,” I describe how to think about maintaining and expanding an edge in a small fund.

This is one of the hottest topics in retail and fund trading at the moment. It runs from necessity, traders are increasingly noticing that their systems no longer work, do not work like they used to, there is no liquidity (that is, entering a position triggers strong counter movements).

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The most important problems that lead to losses on the market and how to deal with them

– “I suffered a series of severe losses, and to this day, I still can’t get it together.” In this quote, my investor friend described a difficult period he was going through. Life events had made him more stressed than usual, and, to make matters worse, a series of losses had occurred. As a result, he was unable to return to the market. Instead, he sat in front of the computer, looked at the signals, and could not open a trade.