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	<title>Cryptocurrency Analysis &#8211; New City Trader</title>
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	<title>Cryptocurrency Analysis &#8211; New City Trader</title>
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		<title>How to stop price declines? How to trigger increases?</title>
		<link>https://newcitytrader.com/how-to-stop-price-declines-how-to-trigger-increases/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Darius Swierk, Chief Editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2023 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[⁕ FULL Text ⁕]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cryptocurrency Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bitcoin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[btc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[The FTX scandal caused a real storm around the world and strong declines on BTC. Recently, the markets have returned to the upside, however, after a close look, the upside is not as strong as the previous declines. The question of whether this is a real reversal or just a temporary upward correction remains open. All [&#8230;]]]></description>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span class="dropcap-bg primary">T</span>he FTX scandal caused a real storm around the world and strong declines on BTC. Recently, the markets have returned to the upside, however, after a close look, the upside is not as strong as the previous declines. The question of whether this is a real reversal or just a temporary upward correction remains open.</strong></p>								</div>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">All the more reason to look at the macro factors that cause price changes on BTC and the factors that may lead to further declines. Because, unfortunately, the latter are quite numerous.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">For now, I don&#8217;t have any good news, we have before us potentially three groups of problems threaten the price of Bitcoin. In the following article, I will first discuss the four most dangerous problems I see, and then show how to solve them (or at least in what direction to look for a solution) so that price increases return. I believe that the overall goal of action taken should be to bring BTC price increases to levels of 500,000+, a rallying target that is very ambitious and requires the activation of many strong mechanisms.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Problems #1 and #2: Negative news tsunami multiplied by two</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">The events surrounding FTX have exposed many of the weaknesses and pathologies that exist in the crypto industry. Many companies that held their money in FTX are at risk, some of them likely to go bankrupt. Each of these developments is reflected immediately in Bitcoin price declines.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">The keywords that will appear are: fraud, embezzlement, theft of billions of dollars, buying residences with customers&#8217; money. This kind of news usually scares retail investors, there is an outflow of small capital from the market.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Currently there have been increases, but&#8230; ahead is the trial of Elon Musk, the richest man in the world. The Musk &#8211; Johnson trial over the value of Doge will attract media attention from around the world. Many journalists will carefully read the two lawsuits (there are already two, a basic one and an extended one) and find dozens of quotes from various influential figures. All of them are negative.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Well-known investors, heads of large funds, directors of central banks, there is even a Nobel laureate in economics. They will find many negative keywords: financial pyramid, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are worthless, scam, fraud, Ponzi scheme, speculative bubble about to burst. Such content will poison news cycles for weeks.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Again.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">In this wave of negative information, opponents of cryptocurrencies will become active again. Particularly dangerous are politicians, heads of central banks, for whom bitcoin and crypto are competitors because they are beyond their control. As a result, this will be a good breeding ground for the most dangerous phenomenon for the entire industry: negative regulations, limiting or completely banning Bitcoin and others.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Bitcoin&#8217;s ban is currently most feasible in the US and Canada</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Problem #3: Possible outright ban on BTC in the US, Canada and the EU.</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">It has long been known that digging and transactions are energy intensive. The annual energy consumption of all crypto is often compared to those of medium-sized countries: Australia, Argentina. About 80% of this is consumed by bitcoin.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Currently, crypto in the US consumes between 0.9 and 1.7% of annual energy consumption. For the US government, greenhouse gas emissions are very important. One BTC transaction is equal to 1,712,000 Visa transactions. Or the energy consumption of an average household for 47.49 days. That&#8217;s a huge amount of energy. With rising energy prices, this topic is becoming political in both the US and Europe. In September of this year, a White House report on the climate and energy implications of cryptocurrency mining (Climate and Energy Implications of Crypto-Assets in the United States) appeared, listing the five most serious problems posed by cryptocurrency mining:</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">&#8211; energy consumption (the data quoted above is from the report),<br />&#8211; excessive load on power grids,<br />&#8211; high greenhouse gas emissions,<br />&#8211; contributing to rising energy prices, <br />&#8211; deterioration of the financial and energy situation of the most vulnerable communities.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">As a result, we have an increasingly tense political situation around cryptocurrencies, especially BTC. The solution that is realistically being considered is a ban on proof-of-work cryptocurrencies (such as BTC). No matter how much the BTC/crypto community outrages and protests against aggressive policy solutions, the U.S. government may simply cut off the electricity. This means a panic sell-off, for many (perhaps even most) miners &#8211; the end of profitability and the prospect of bankruptcy.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">The same will happen in Europe. I live in the UK, electricity costs have more than doubled. If there are negative regulations in the US, practically within a month we will have similar solutions throughout Europe. For BTC, this will be a disaster. This is the prospect of a panic sell-off, a panicked flight from the markets. To put it in one sentence: if the US imposes a ban, almost certainly Europe will do the same.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">There will be a domino effect &#8211; blocking mining and transactions. Disaster. We will be lucky if BTC stops somewhere around $2000. But if panic begins, it could go even lower. Those who have $1 million in BTC today will have $100,000. Or less.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Problem number 4: Wall Street and London City</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">As if all this wasn&#8217;t enough, we have a third factor. BTC has become too risky for big City and Wall Street investors, and there is an outflow of capital from the industry. Let&#8217;s start with a very simple truth in investing: capital inflows cause prices to rise (e.g., stocks or BTC), and outflows cause declines. Different types of institutional investors have the most capital: investment banks, hedge funds, family offices. Big players read the analyses of major investment banks and take their recommendations into account when making decisions.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Let&#8217;s look at one such analysis, issued by Goldman Sachs: Insights: &#8220;Beauty is not in the eye of the beholder.&#8221; Note that they do not distinguish between BTC and Altcoins, calling them all cryptocurrencies.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><em>&#8220;We do not consider cryptocurrencies to be a strategic asset that adds value to our clients&#8217; portfolios,&#8221;</em> he says.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><em>&#8220;After analyzing six different approaches, we believe it is virtually impossible to build a convincing framework for valuing cryptocurrencies.&#8221;</em></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><em>&#8220;We believe that an asset whose increase in value depends mainly on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a suitable investment for our clients.</em></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">On valuation: <em>&#8220;Using the same valuation method that the market uses to value other credit card payment systems, the price of Bitcoin is estimated to be around $22.&#8221;</em> My comment: this is not a mistake, they value BTC not at $22,000, but at $22 (twenty-two dollars).</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Without going into a deeper analysis of whether these calculations are right or wrong (easy to dispute in my opinion), let&#8217;s consider how such documents affect mainstream investors. Investors first read that BTC has no value, there is no valuation model, Bitcoin builds its price solely on psychological effect, politicians think about banning BTC, and then they see valuations at: $22. How do you think, after reading these analyses, will anyone feel like investing, for example, half a billion dollars in Bitcoin? If you answered no &#8211; you&#8217;re right.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px;">Of course, major investors also read the press and government reports and know about the possibility of a ban. It&#8217;s a risk factor they certainly don&#8217;t overlook, and perhaps even take advantage of &#8211; playing for declines. To sum up, we have not one reason for the crash, but three (or even four), one worse than the other, which unhappily coincide at the same time.</p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">The solution: it's time to get organized</h2>				</div>
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									<p><span>Given the intensity and scope of the problems, there should be some kind of institutional solution. That is, some kind of organization, preferably a foundation, which will solve problems, counteract negative information, try to stop negative regulations. And on top of that, it will launch value-building projects for BTC</span></p><p><span>Traditional currencies have the state apparatus behind them, and BTC has no one. This must change, in my opinion, there should be such an organization that realistically looks after the interests of the industry. And to make sure that those who today have assets worth millions of dollars in BTC do not wake up in a few months with assets worth&#8230;. 1/10 of what they are today. </span></p><p><span>Today, you have to gather arguments, people, prepare strategies for action, then execute them and repeat as necessary. This is a job for a dozen, maybe a few dozen people. I think the whole industry is facing a broad discussion about the future and gathering reasonable ideas about what to do next. </span></p><p><span>Of course, major investors from Wall Street and London City should be invited to the discussion. Many very interesting ideas can come from their side. But above all, the hodlers themselves should be asked for their opinions. Below I will make some comments on what can and should be done about each of the problems described above.</span></p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Tsunami of negative news</h2>				</div>
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									<p><span>What is needed is a group of people who will actively oppose the argument against BTC (and also Doge). Now and in the future.</span></p><p><span>The industry needs people who will be tasked every day with following, commenting, presenting counter-arguments where necessary: in the press, on the radio, on television. Television and the mainstream media are currently controlled by those with traditional views, and it&#8217;s time to change that. </span></p><p><span>It&#8217;s time to provide arguments contrary to the views of W. Buffet, Krugman, Goldman Sachs analysts, central bank heads and their ilk. This is not easy, it is a huge task, but it is possible. A list of counter-arguments is in the pipeline. </span></p><p><span>Similarly, with the written media and mainstream journalists, you need to reach out to those who will comment on the process and provide them with counter-arguments against the opponents of BTC. I have prepared a list of more than 50 contacts, producers and journalists of major programs in the US, this is definitely something to start with. </span></p><p><span>In addition to this, consider publishing articles about prospects, opportunities on major news networks to maintain a positive narrative on the subject.</span></p><p><span>In this area, it&#8217;s worth spending some time trying to take over the narrative and weave more and more positive content about BTC, since we&#8217;re already going to stop the bad things, it&#8217;s worth simultaneously promoting the good things with interest. I have a list of about 60 counter-arguments (and positive news), which I will develop.</span></p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Ban</h2>				</div>
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									<p><span>This is the most dangerous issue. If there is a ban and a domino effect, it will be a matter of saving BTC from the 2000 &#8211; 3000 level, if we are lucky. To avoid such a situation, several things need to be done. </span></p><p><span>Review all the technical, political and social arguments that support a BTC ban. Prepare strategies and solutions for each of them. Why on all of them? If we address the energy consumption argument alone and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, and, for example, prepare a program to transition to renewables, we may suddenly find that the grid load and social arguments become paramount. In politics, it often happens that the arguments presented are just a facade behind which the real decision is hidden.</span></p><p><span>I fear that this may also be the case in our case. And the decision to ban could benefit many big players who have shorts on BTC and cryptocurrencies. The ban will cause panic and allow them to come out with huge, multi-billion dollar profits. Too late to investigate whether such a situation exists, it is safer to assume that it does. And make every effort to ensure that politicians have no way to &#8220;reasonably justify&#8221; the decision to ban. That is, take every argument very seriously. In addition, closely follow the mainstream media and react to comments calling for a ban or treating it as a reasonable solution.</span></p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Aggregation of values</h2>				</div>
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									<p><span>BTC is to grow to 100k, 200k and more, I see only one way. We have to figure out a way to do it together. </span></p><p><span>The main principle is this: only an influx of capital (and a lot of it) into the industry will increase the price of BTC and cryptocurrencies in general. I wrote about this above: it is necessary to create such a way for BTC to &#8220;aggregate&#8221; value, so that the new pricing model will be accepted by the largest investors. I have several proposals, but I think it is better to generate a large discussion and listen to the most diverse ideas, rather than limiting ourselves to one or two solutions. If we are successful, there should be a way to &#8220;add&#8221; and build value for BTC to the level of $500k-$1 million. </span></p><p><span>This should be our premise in this challenge. Ideally, the entire BTC/crypto community should start thinking about this. In addition to these challenges, it is worth adding a few others that will accelerate the development of BTC and cryptocurrencies in general, I have put them in two additional projects.</span></p>								</div>
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									<p><span><strong>Project 1: Accelerating business adoption </strong></span></p><p><span>To accelerate business adoption, we have several initiatives to choose from: information and training (on business development and BTC use) for companies that are considering BTC adoption, creating ready-made programs for universities to help introduce topics related to the modern economy and BTC into university curricula, exploring ways in which the BTC/crypto environment can positively influence corporations to introduce payments and develop access for their customers. In each area, it is worth creating a knowledge base, best practices to accelerate and facilitate adoption in traditional business. </span></p><p><span><strong>Project 2: Facilitate BTC adoption by countries</strong></span></p><p><span>Active networking strategies for countries looking to introduce BTC more widely, databases of best practices (what has worked and what hasn&#8217;t and why), Expand initiatives to use renewable energy sources for mining, </span></p><p><span>Discussion of geopolitical risks (in the U.S., they are concerned that BTC could threaten the position of the dollar, reduce the influence of the U.S. in the global economy. Such opinions are published in several foreign policy journals, so they should be taken seriously in order to gain as much favor for BTC and cryptocurrencies as possible).</span></p>								</div>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Conclusion</h2>				</div>
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									<p><span>We have entered a difficult period for BTC and cryptocurrencies. A tsunami of negative news, capital flight, possible banning &#8211; this is very bad news. It&#8217;s time to think about creating an institution that will protect the interests of the BTC industry, deal with stopping the ban, falling prices, deal with building an investment value for BTC that will be acceptable to mainstream investors and attract large capital. If you want to avoid being left with 10 cents of every BTC/crypto dollar, now is the time to act. Creating a foundation should be the first step.</span></p>								</div>
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		<title>BITCOIN: 10 good reasons  that we may witnessing the end of the dips</title>
		<link>https://newcitytrader.com/bitcoin-reversal/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[New City Trader]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 May 2022 16:17:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cryptocurrency Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bitcoin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[btc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://newcitytrader.com/?p=6974</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The current chart indicate the last stages of market manipulation. Research confirms interest in BTC from major investors is growing.]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">The current chart indicate the last stages of market manipulation. Research confirms interest in BTC from major investors is growing.</h2>				</div>
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									<p style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong>In short:</strong></p><ul><li>According to research, the major investors&#8217; interest in bitcoin is growing.</li><li>The behavior of the BTC price resembles typical patterns of the market manipulation.</li><li>The current chart has two most important features of the correction: volume and structure.</li><li>Both show that we are close the end of the declines.</li></ul>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">The BTC situation is dynamic. Several things indicate that we are near the end of the price declines and market reversal</h4>				</div>
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									<p>If you are interested in this topic and what major traders think about BTC then I suggest signing up for our <a href="#newsletter"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">mailing list (below)</span></a>. We will publish analysis there on a regular basis as the situation develops. We are now particularly interested in answering when confirmation of increases will occur.</p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">"The biggest investors constantly manipulate the markets" was the claim of a trader I met</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> The current situation looks like the last stage of market manipulation, which may be followed by a reversal.</em></p><p>I have been interested in top traders and investors for a dozen years or so. I have listened to many strange and interesting stories. One of them may shed light on what is currently happening with BTC. We may be dealing with market manipulation.</p><p>The trader I want to write about worked for many years in a syndicate that manipulated the markets. Thanks to him I learned about several key formations that his group &#8220;drew&#8221; on the markets.</p><p>Two of these are worth describing because one is now clearly visible in BTC chart and half of the other just appeared. Both together could mean two very important things.</p><p>The current BTC declines are a correction, which will be followed by increases. We are close the end of the declines.</p><p>These two formations combined with several tools that the biggest traders use to analyze the markets (which I will describe below) make the BTC situation very interesting despite of the panicky headlines.</p><p>Especially that several different tools&#8230; show the same thing. We are dealing with the so-called confluence of indicators.</p><p>But that&#8217;s not all, the fire of the situation is added by the great interest in cryptocurrencies from the biggest investors. And they are not only not afraid to buy on dips, they like dips because they provide an opportunity for cheap entry into valuable markets.</p><p>Later in this article I will describe five tools that can be used to analyze the markets. The first tool is to analyze price and volume, just like a market manipulation trader would do.</p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Point 1: The current BTC declines are a correction that will most likely be followed by increases. We are close the end of the declines</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> According to the volume analysis &#8211; most likely we are dealing with an ending correction which will be followed by increases.</em></p><p>One syndicate trader told me that they analyze two factors: price and volume.</p><p>According to him, high and very high volume meant that the &#8220;biggest&#8221; players are involved in the market. Low &#8211; that they are not, that there are only small players in the market.</p><p>Corrections (declines) were characterized by much lower volume than strong impulse (trend) movements.</p><p>Volume reversal formations often appeared at the ends of corrections.</p><p>Now, it looks like half of such formations have already been drawn. Let&#8217;s take a look at the charts.</p><p>Chart: low volume in recent declines (green arrow at the bottom) &#8211; usually such volume characterizes corrections.</p>								</div>
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															<img decoding="async" width="1503" height="817" src="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-1-LOW-VOLUME-opt.png" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-6975" alt="" srcset="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-1-LOW-VOLUME-opt.png 1503w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-1-LOW-VOLUME-opt-300x163.png 300w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-1-LOW-VOLUME-opt-1024x557.png 1024w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-1-LOW-VOLUME-opt-768x417.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1503px) 100vw, 1503px" />															</div>
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									<p>What does a volume reversal pattern look like at the end of a correction? Let&#8217;s look at the earlier correction in mid-2021 (two green arrows in the middle of the chart).</p><p>The right arrow &#8211; indicates clearly lower volume. Price has gone about $150 lower than before (there is a new low). The new low is made on lower volume.</p>								</div>
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															<img decoding="async" width="1503" height="817" src="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-VOL-REVERSAL-opt.png" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-6977" alt="" srcset="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-VOL-REVERSAL-opt.png 1503w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-300x163.png 300w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-1024x557.png 1024w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-768x417.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1503px) 100vw, 1503px" />															</div>
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									<p>A formation similar to this can be drawn nowdays, it is quite common in the markets. If so, it will look more or less like this:</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1503" height="817" src="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-A-VOL-REVERSAL-opt.png" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-6976" alt="Learn how to trade: 2 unexpected tools that help you understand trading strategy" srcset="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-A-VOL-REVERSAL-opt.png 1503w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-A-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-300x163.png 300w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-A-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-1024x557.png 1024w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-2-A-VOL-REVERSAL-opt-768x417.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1503px) 100vw, 1503px" />															</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Point 2: some big players use Elliott waves to analyze markets</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> according to Elliott wave analysis (this tool is used by many large traders) we are dealing with the last phase of the correction.</em></p><p>Waves are important tool. Some of the big traders use it for contextual analysis, some use them as their main tool.</p><p>Three main conclusions from the wave picture on BTC:</p><ul><li>The current move down is most likely a correction.</li><li>We are close the end of the correction.</li><li>The final downward move &#8211; &#8220;wave five&#8221; &#8211; is still missing.</li></ul><p>Let&#8217;s look at how this looks on the chart:</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1503" height="817" src="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-4-ELLIOTT-WAVES-opt.png" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-6979" alt="" srcset="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-4-ELLIOTT-WAVES-opt.png 1503w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-4-ELLIOTT-WAVES-opt-300x163.png 300w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-4-ELLIOTT-WAVES-opt-1024x557.png 1024w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-4-ELLIOTT-WAVES-opt-768x417.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1503px) 100vw, 1503px" />															</div>
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									<p><span>Now let&#8217;s try, using three another tools, to determine a possible level where the correction may end. Surprisingly, all three show more or less the same area. </span></p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Point 3: Favourite average of big traders is just below current price level</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> The most important average, used for decades to determine a trend, is just below the current price level. Usually the price bounces strongly off it. The bounce area will be around 22,000.</em></p><p>The use of the SMA 200 average has a very long tradition, at least a century. It has been one of the main tools for determining the long-term trend.</p><p style="padding-left: 40px;">By the way, a short remark: no tool should be considered as working always and everywhere. It is very important to see if the tools in question are currently working &#8211; that is, if they are currently being used by key investors. I will explain this in more detail in the next articles in our magazine, because this is a very important topic and poorly understood. </p>								</div>
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									<p>Let&#8217;s look at how the waves worked on our chart earlier. In points 1 and 2 we see that it worked. This could also mean that the big investors were already there.</p><p>I also checked how it works on D1 and it works quite well, also on the weekly I think we will observe a strong reaction.</p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Point 4: The envelope on the daily chart that previously reversed the move is... just below</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> Envelopes around averages are used by traders to indicate that the price has moved &#8220;too far&#8221; from an important average. In recent years, their importance has increased because many automated systems use this approach. The reversal area is around 22,000.</em></p><p>Envelopes have always been important, their importance has increased in recent years because of automated systems. In short, they work like this: if the price moves too far away from the average &#8211; it triggers an automatic reaction from the algorithmic systems.</p><p>With this knowledge let&#8217;s look at the chart below.</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1503" height="817" src="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-3-ENVELOPE-opt.png" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-6978" alt="" srcset="https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-3-ENVELOPE-opt.png 1503w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-3-ENVELOPE-opt-300x163.png 300w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-3-ENVELOPE-opt-1024x557.png 1024w, https://newcitytrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/New-City-Trader-FIG-3-ENVELOPE-opt-768x417.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1503px) 100vw, 1503px" />															</div>
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									<p>I tried to find an envelope that worked before &#8211; and it turns out that the lower envelope is currently slightly below the price. And this is where I would expect a reaction as well.</p><p>The average that is used to plot the envelope is again 200. In point 3 we can see how it recently acted as resistance for a downward bounce.</p><p>Here we are dealing with the area around the 22,000 level.</p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Point 5: It is very interesting to note that interest from major investors in BTC has grown strongly in the last year</h4>				</div>
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									<p><em><strong>In one sentence:</strong> One of the most important investor groups (perhaps even the most important from our point of view) is very interested in crypto investments. This group could bring as much as tens of additional billions of dollars to the markets.</em></p><p>Among the largest investors, we have three major groups: banks, hedge funds and family offices.</p><p>According to a recent research, the interest in crypto from family offices has increased a lot. Why is this important? There are three good reasons for this.</p><p>Family offices are the least known group of investors. They are private investment funds of the wealthiest families. They have enormous capital at their disposal. In late 2021, hedge funds had about $4.5 trillion under management. And family offices &#8211; about 6 trillion (or 30% more).</p><p>Secondly, the investment solutions and products that are created for them are later available also for smaller investors.</p><p>Third, generally speaking, the best of the banks and mutual funds work there – people who have earned their reputation as outstanding specialists.</p><p>Of course, in the case of the biggest ones, we won&#8217;t know exactly what positions they hold. So how can we gauge their commitment and future appetite for crypto? There are two such ways.</p><p>The first is to read the reports and analyses that are directed to family offices &#8211; the largest banks.</p><p style="padding-left: 40px;">By the way: the largest banks have started offering crypto products for family offices.</p><p>Secondly, research the family offices themselves to what extent they are interested or involved in crypto. They certainly won&#8217;t tell us how much, but keep in mind that this industry can bring another 1-2% of its resources to the crypto market, which will equate to about 100-120 billion.</p><p>Reports aimed at family offices (at least the ones I know of) talk about valuing BTC at $100k or more in a few years. There are some that talk about a value twice that.</p><p>Another case: last year less than 50% of FOs expressed interest in crypto. This year, according to a survey from January &#8211; already 77%. This is a huge increase. And the survey took place in January &#8211; when we were already in the middle of big drops.</p><p>Let me repeat, because this is important: BTC was falling strongly, while interest in Family Offices was growing strongly.</p><p style="padding-left: 40px;"><em>The research I mentioned:</em></p><p style="padding-left: 40px;"><em>(from Barrons: „Future Returns: Cryptocurrency’s Future in Family Office Portfolios”)</em></p><p style="padding-left: 40px;"><em>“In February, BNY Mellon, in conjunction with the Harris Poll, released its first-ever global family office survey findings. Some of the most interesting data suggest a previously unheard of level of interest in cryptocurrency investments.</em></p><p>Of 200 key global family office personnel surveyed, 77% said their firms were exploring or investing in cryptocurrencies, with one out of five describing themselves as active investors.”</p>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">In short: </h4>				</div>
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									<ul><li>According to research, the interest of major investors in BTC is increasing.</li><li>The behavior of the BTC price resembles typical patterns of market manipulation.</li><li>The current chart has two most important features of the correction: volume and structure.</li><li>Both show that we are close to the end of the declines.</li><li>One final downward movement is still missing.</li><li>The first part of the reversal pattern has already appeared.</li><li>Formations of this type were built by large traders and syndicates manipulating the markets.</li><li>Several indicators show that we are nearing the end of the correction.</li><li>What is interesting is that they all more or less point to the same place.</li><li>Several other indicators used by large traders show a possible reversal area.</li></ul>								</div>
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					<h4 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">The situation on BTC is dynamic. Several things indicate that we are close to the end of the declines and reversal</h4>				</div>
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									<p>If you are interested in this topic and what major traders think about BTC then I suggest signing up for our <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="#newsletter">mailing list (below)</a></span>. We will publish analysis there on a regular basis as the situation develops. We are now particularly interested in answering when confirmation of increases will occur.</p>								</div>
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